It is never very jolly to get back from holiday. It was particularly depressing to see that the Mass Fatalities Unit of the Home Office (I never even knew that they had one) had issued draft guidance on Planning for a Possible Influenza Pandemic (pdf available).
The report includes interesting planning assumptions. It also gives scenarios such as:
The reasonable worse case scenario could produce around 650,000 additional deaths across England and Wales, based on a clinical attack rate of 50% and a case fatality rate of 2.5%.
Nevertheless we should be cheered that central government is taking the risk of a flu pandemic seriously. Are other providers of public services doing likewise.
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